Geopolitical Risk Index spikes to 600
Historically a buy signal.
That’s an extreme reading — and exactly the kind of moment when I lean on sentiment…
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The mood of the market, mapped and decoded
Heatmap Update
Geopolitics is back — if it ever really went away. It’s difficult (borderline impossible) to have an edge in predicting…
Max disagreement among sentiment surveys...or is it?
Last week I wrote about the mixed messages coming from three popular investor surveys. The latest prints have pushed the…
ZEW Misunderstood
The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment has a poor reputation among many investors — and I think that’s largely undeserved.…
Heatmap Update
News flow has been anything but quiet — but US equities have mostly been going sideways. And sideways markets have a…
3 Investor Surveys, 3 Messages?
II says everyone’s bullish, AAII says more Bears than Bulls and NAAIM is somewhere in the middle. Now what?…
Sentiment Ideas: Cyclicals, Room To Run
One of the clearest patterns in equity markets in recent months has been the rotation into economically sensitive stocks — Cyclicals.…
Heatmap Update
It’s always striking how quickly a few weaker sessions in risk can take the froth off the market’s…
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker
February 2026 - Views from 44 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,300+ individual views
Main takeaways…
Consensus Longs & Shorts
One of the questions I get asked most often is:
“What’s the consensus trade right now?”
The simplest way…
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