31 July 2025
Bottom lines
- New Survey: Global institutions are bullish equities and private credit, bearish real estate
- Hedge fund betas say it all: neutral, cautious, and far from conviction
- US consumer surveys with contradicting messages: one bullish, one bearish. Who’s right?
- Big bullish shift from newsletter writers (II Bull-Bear)—but no sell signal yet
- Rising put/call ratios suggest caution—but not bearishness
- And the Biggest Bullish/Bearish Movers
1) Schroders Global Investor Insights Survey
- Survey of 995 global investors (mostly institutional), conducted in April–May, after Liberation Day
- That makes its results somewhat stale tactically, but it still offers insight into positioning mindset
- Biggest macro concern (after tariffs): China–Taiwan tensions
- Nearly 1 in 4 expect volatility greater than during Covid or the GFC—a surprisingly high level of concern
- Despite this, equities are the most favoured asset class, and real estate the least
- “Wealth gatekeepers” (likely closer to retail) were more bullish than institutional respondents. This matches other surveys.
- Concentration risk is a very consensus concern (94%)—possibly amplified by US market underperformance post-Liberation Day
- Private credit is universally loved, as it is in every survey
- Decarbonisation is still a popular theme—86% plan to allocate more to it, but preferences have shifted:
- Hydrogen is going through the hype cycle. It has become the least popular decarbonisation area, after being extremely popular a few years ago
- Renewables are top-ranked, with nuclear in the middle
