One of the questions I get asked most often is:
“What’s the consensus trade right now?”
The simplest way to answer it is to rank assets by sentiment.
Our Sentiment Matters Aggregates combine more than 700 sentiment indicators across more than 50 assets. They bring together surveys, positioning, flows, options activity and market-based measures to show where sentiment is most bullish — and where it is most bearish.
For contrarian investors, that makes the ranking a useful place to start.
Consensus does not mean wrong. Strong sentiment often reflects strong fundamentals and persistent momentum. Equally, deeply disliked assets can remain under pressure for good reason.
But the more one-sided the consensus becomes, the more vulnerable it can be to a change in the prevailing narrative.
This note looks in more detail at three of the strongest consensus longs — Technology, Industrial Metals and Energy — and two of the clearest consensus shorts — Health Care and High Yield.
The aim is not simply to fade the most popular assets and buy the least popular ones. It is to identify where expectations may have become stretched, what could challenge them and where the most interesting contrarian opportunities may be emerging.
The current consensus ranking
Sometimes there are clear themes running through the assets with the most bullish and bearish sentiment. At the moment, that is not really the case.
At both ends of the spectrum, we find largely idiosyncratic stories rather than one theme tying everything together.
At the top of the sentiment ranking are equity sectors as diverse as Technology and Energy, emerging-market currencies such as the real and rand, and commodities including Industrial and Precious Metals.
It is a similar picture at the other end. Bearish sentiment can be found in the Canadian dollar, sectors as diverse as Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, and fixed-income assets such as sovereign bonds and High Yield.
The bullish and bearish extremes are relatively symmetrical, which was not the case only a few months ago.
Most of the strongest consensus longs sit between roughly the 80th and 95th percentiles. The assets with the most bearish sentiment aggregates are all below the 20th percentile.
Consensus longs
Technology
Technology is the most popular equity sector and has held that position almost continuously since June 2025, during the recovery from the Liberation Day sell-off. It was only briefly knocked off the top spot by Utilities and Energy at the start of the war with Iran.
It is also one of the strongest consensus longs overall in our cross-asset universe and sits near the very top-right corner of our Sentiment & Momentum Map.
So far, so expected.
What stands out is how bullish sentiment towards Tech has remained throughout the past two years. The SMA has averaged above 80 over that period.
This reflects the strength of investor conviction in the structural investment case for the sector and the broader AI ecosystem. It also helps explain the underlying appetite to buy the dip whenever Tech comes under pressure.
