24 July 2025
Bottom lines
- Dollar sentiment remains deeply bearish, but there are some signs of bottom-fishing.
- Japan: Bullish yen, neutral Nikkei, bearish JGBs
- Fidelity survey: European retail investors are cautiously bullish
- Contrarian signal: American consumers are bearish
- Trade Policy Uncertainty has dropped, but remains higher than at any time pre Trump 2.
- Crypto: Retail investors are bullish, institutions remain sceptical
1) Fidelity Retail Investor Survey: Cautiously Bullish
- Covers 5,500 European retail investors
- Overall tone: Cautiously bullish—consistent with other indicators
- 44% bullish vs 22% bearish (net +22%)
- But: 13% more investors plan to reduce rather than increase their investments over the next year
- Strong interest in crypto: 24% hold it, 22% see current conditions as a buying opportunity (2nd highest after equities)
- The survey was conducted in May–June, so sentiment may have shifted slightly more bullish since
