Sentiment Heatmap

22 September 2025

This week’s Heatmap Update is bigger than ever. We have added heatmaps for Equity Regions and will add Equity Factors soon.

Heatmap stays bullish—most bullish since December
EM equities are the most bullish region, by a long shot.
BRL: new most bullish currency. 7 out of 9 indicators are above the 90^th percentile

With equities grinding higher around the Fed’s rate cut, it’s no surprise that investor sentiment remains bullish.
Most bullish since December: Our Risk-On/Risk-Off Heatmap was little changed at the 63rd percentile, its highest in 8 months. That’s close to the 2024 high of 66, though still well below the sell threshold of 73. Historically, this zone has coincided with below-average equity returns over the next 12 months.
Heatmap shifts this week: 27 bullish vs. 28 bearish.
The AAII Bull-Bear survey rebounded to neutral, with as many Bulls as Bears. It had been the key outlier, flashing deep bearishness while most other indicators turned bullish. The gap is narrowing, though it remains an outlier.
Fund flows had a very bullish week. ETF net issuance has been trending higher and just jumped above the historical sell threshold, marking the third-strongest flow week in three years.
The equity Put/Call ratio fell to its lowest in 5 months (11th percentile). Historically, however, it has not been a reliable sell signal.
Out of 55 indicators in our Heatmap, 13 are at or above the 90th percentile, while 5 are at or below the 10th. But three of those five are policy uncertainty indicators, which have a weak track record as market signals.
Hedge Fund Betas remain elevated. Macro Hedge Fund Beta is still at its highest in 7 years, with other strategies also drifting more bullish.

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