Last week I wrote about the mixed messages coming from three popular investor surveys. The latest prints have pushed the headline disagreement even further: the gap between AAII Bull–Bear, Investors Intelligence Bull–Bear, and NAAIM Exposure has only been larger 4% of the time.
But here’s the thing: the surveys look more contradictory than they really are once you put them in historical context.
What the latest data says
AAII Bull–Bear: looks bearish, but is basically neutral
- Latest reading sits at the 23rd percentile, with 6.6% more Bears than Bulls (most bearish since November).
- Historically, that zone has been consistent with average to slightly above-average equity returns over the next 1, 3, 6 and 12 months.
So yes, it sounds bearish — but as a signal it’s closer to neutral.