Heatmap Update

11 November 2025

We’ve added the UBS & CFA Society Switzerland monthly analyst survey, covering expectations across equities, fixed income, FX and commodities.

Sentiment has cooled more than price action suggests. Equities are near all-time highs, but sentiment has not followed back to prior peaks.
Real Estate sentiment has fallen sharply, with five indicators below the 10th percentile.
Copper sentiment is very bullish — by far the most popular commodity, with the average indicator nearly double its April reading.

Sentiment has cooled off more than equities near all-time highs might suggest.
Our risk-on/risk-off Sentiment Matters Aggregate has been tracking the recent choppy path of equity markets, but with a downward drift.
The S&P 500 is +1.2% vs early October, while sentiment is –9% from its October high.
This is typical: sentiment resets quickly during pullbacks and recovers more slowly. The “second visit” to old highs rarely generates the same enthusiasm.
That means there is still room for equities to rise before sentiment hits warning territory.
Current reading: 58.3.
For context: 2024 peak = 66, sell threshold = 73 → this zone has historically corresponded to below-average 12-month equity returns.
10 indicators are at bullish extremes (>90th percentile), down from 12 last week (spanning ETF flows, hedge fund beta, call volumes, Nasdaq options, surveys, and AAII cash).
7 indicators are at bearish extremes (<10th percentile), mostly political/geopolitical — which do not historically work well as sell signals.
Also on the list this week: money market fund assets, VIX put/call ratio, Nikkei implied volatility.
NAAIM equity exposure fell from its highest since June, but remains elevated. Good buy signal historically when low, less reliable when high.
AAII Sentiment Survey is balanced (almost equal Bulls and Bears). No signal.

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