Top 3 This Week
- Sentiment has cooled to neutral — not bearish
- Tech sentiment remains bullish despite all the headlines and the recent volatility.
- Bitcoin sentiment has fallen to year-to-date lows, with some indicators close to all-time lows.
Sentiment Overview
- The equity drawdown felt sharp, but sentiment has only reset back to neutral, not bearish.
- Our Risk-On/Risk-Off Sentiment Matters Aggregate (SMA) has slipped to 56, down from 65 in October. Historically, this range maps to average 12-month equity returns with no clear directional skew.
- In periods of higher volatility, high-frequency sentiment measures are more informative — but even those aren’t flashing fear.
- The VIX peaked at 27, nowhere near the 35–40 levels that historically generate strong buy-the-dip signals.
- AAII survey: ticked up last week (before the drawdown after Nvidia’s results). Overall still neutral.
- Investors Intelligence and NAAIM remain firmly bullish — both slower-moving surveys, so AAII deserves more weight in fast markets.
- Nasdaq 100 net call volume has dropped to the 10th percentile, but still above historical buy-signal territory. Other option signals don’t confirm a bearish picture.
Conclusion:
Sentiment isn’t giving a buy-the-dip signal here. If you’re structurally bullish on macro, this drawdown may offer an opportunity — but don’t rely on sentiment to build your case, because sentiment is not yet bearish.
Note: CFTC futures & options positioning publications have resumed post–US government shutdown. Historical data will be released on an accelerated schedule, but full normalisation won’t be complete until 23 January 2026.