Everyone “loves” Energy — obviously — but here’s some context from our sentiment data.
The average Energy sentiment indicator is at its 76th percentile, pushing the Energy SMA up to the 86th percentile. Energy swings hard over time, but this is the most bullish sentiment in 17 years.
- The only two indicators not above the 60th percentile are slow movers:
- Schwab net buying (monthly, still pre-war)
- ETF market share (slow-moving by design)
And the rest is stacked: 6 indicators >90th percentile, another 4 >80th.
The AI GPR on oil disruptions is also flashing a warning flag. When GPR Oil > 270, the Energy sector has on average underperformed by ~10% over the next year, underperforming 76% of the time.
And the rule holds: the sharper the price/sentiment surge, the greater the vulnerability, especially when it’s driven by one unpredictable factor.