16 September 2025
Top 3 This Week
- Heatmap drifts more bullish again—most bullish since December
- Health Care paradox: horrible performance, but still loved by investors
- Gold sentiment diverges: not as bullish here as in the Buy-Side Sentiment Tracker.
Sentiment Overview
- Most bullish since December: Our Risk-On/Risk-Off Heatmap edged up to the 64th percentile, its highest in 8 months. That’s close to the 2024 high of 66, though still well below the sell threshold of 73. Historically, this zone has aligned with below-average equity returns over the next 12 months.
- Heatmap shifts this week: 29 bullish vs. 28 bearish.
- ISE Equity Sentiment (an option-based measure in the shape of a call/put ratio) has been trending higher for months and now sits close to levels that have historically been warning signs for equities.
- Net Call Volumes rose further, with some reaching the 98th percentile—another set of option-based indicators with a strong sentiment track record.
- Speculative positions in VIX futures have collapsed. From near a buy signal after the Liberation Day sell-off, they are now deep in net short territory (10th percentile)—closing in on a sell signal.
- Hedge Fund Betas remain high. Macro Hedge Fund Beta is still at its highest in 7 years, with other strategies also drifting more bullish.
- The AAII Bull-Bear survey has become an even bigger outlier. It dropped sharply to -21.5% net bearish, placing it in the 7th percentile of its 38-year history. It is now closing in on the buy threshold of -40%.