1 September 2025
Summer holidays are behind us, schools are restarting, and markets are still doing what they’ve been doing all summer: grinding higher. With that comes a steady grind higher in sentiment, visible across the indicators we track.
Top 3 This Week
1) Heatmap continues to drift more bullish—most bullish since December
2) Euro sentiment is close to its most bullish reading on record
3) Gold sentiment keeps creeping higher—most bullish in three years
Sentiment Overview
- Most Bullish Sentiment since December
- Our Risk-On/Risk-Off Heatmap sits at the 62nd percentile, its highest level in 8 months. Still below the 2024 high of 66, and short of the historical sell threshold at 73. Historically, this level has been consistent with below-average equity returns over the following year.
- Heatmap shifts this week: 25 bullish vs. 25 bearish.
- Slightly fewer indicators now sit above sell thresholds.
- Net Call Volumes for equities dipped—still very high, but just below sell levels.
- Global Equity ETF issuance also fell, dropping below its historical sell threshold (though this is a volatile series).
- US consumer expectations for stocks (Conference Board) remain very bullish and above the sell threshold—but this signal has been elevated since March.
- Macro Hedge Fund Betas climbed further, now at their most bullish in four years.
- AAII Bull-Bear survey stays neutral at -5% net bearish, far from a signal.