19 August 2025
This week’s update comes to you from the side of a pool in Crete—sun, sea, spreadsheets, and sentiment. Alongside the usual indicators, there are two new additions to the Heatmaps:
- New sector Heatmaps: Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care
- Long-term sector momentum: performance trends measured over 10 years, highlighting which sectors have consistently out- or underperformed—a good proxy for how investors “feel” about a sector over the long run
Sentiment Overview
- Sentiment continues to drift gradually more bullish.
- Our Risk-On/Risk-Off Heatmap stands at the 55th percentile—slightly bullish, continuing the slow upward grind, though still below last year’s high-60s.
- Heatmap shifts this week: 23 bullish vs. 20 bearish.
- The AAII Bull-Bear survey is still moving against the grain—down to -16% net bearish, far from any historical buy signal.
- Hedge Fund Betas have jumped, suggesting funds are adding equity exposure after a long spell of neutrality. E.g. Macro hedge fund beta is now at its highest in 8 months.
- Net Call Volumes surged to their highest level since January, crossing historical sell thresholds. It’s just one data point, but notable—it’s now one of only three indicators above sell levels.