29 September 2025
Top 3 This Week
- Bullish, but stable— sentiment is the most positive since December
- Tech dominates sector sentiment - Utilities the only other net bullish sector.
- USD weakens further: dollar sentiment falls to lowest level in over a decade.
Sentiment Overview
- Like equity markets, sentiment has been grinding higher slowly.
- Unlike equity markets and valuations, sentiment is not near all-time highs.
- Our Heatmap remains at its most bullish since December, sitting at the 63rd percentile (8-month high). That’s close to the 2024 peak of 66, though still well below the sell threshold of 73. Historically, this zone has meant below-average equity returns over the next year.
- This week: 22 bullish vs. 30 bearish indicators.
- AAII survey: Increase to slightly net bullish. Bulls unchanged, a few Bears shifted to Neutral. No signal yet.
- Sentix IPO Sentiment: +5 points, now at a 4-year high (83rd percentile). It rates 1/3 as a sentiment indicator but tends to work better at bearish extremes.
- Put/Call ratios: Falling. Nasdaq 100 open interest ratio dropped to ~1, at the 9th percentile.
- Flows: ETFs had a second very bullish week in a row. Net issuance above the historical sell threshold; this week’s inflows were the largest since last autumn and among the biggest on record. Mutual fund flows, however, remain moderate.
- Net Call Volumes: Back in neutral territory.
- Heatmap extremes: Out of 55 indicators, 12 are at/above the 90th percentile, 4 at/below the 10th. Two of those four are policy uncertainty measures, which are weak market signals.
- Hedge Funds: Macro Hedge Fund Beta remains at its highest in seven years.
Equity Sectors
- Most bullish sector: Communication Services
- Most bearish sector: Health Care
- Overall picture: Tech dominates sentiment as much as it does index weights.
- Only three sectors have SMAs above 50: Technology, Communication Services, and Utilities. All others remain net bearish to varying degrees.
- Technology & Communication Services: Strongly bullish. Sentiment is the highest since 2017, a sharp turnaround from the 15-year lows of 2022. Matches our Buy-Side Tracker.
- Real Estate: Sentiment is drifting higher, but still net bearish. September Sentix Real Estate sentiment also sits just below 50.
- Health Care: Poor performance across regions, yet still popular in our Buy-Side Tracker. Far from capitulation.